The complexity of marine socio-ecosystems, combined with often indirect and incomplete observations, leads to representations that are far removed from their actual functioning. The acceptability of modeling tools as decision-making tools depends on the adherence of various stakeholders to the vision of the socio-ecosystem they present.

Identifying convergences and integrating divergences in representation as a form of process uncertainty is an essential prerequisite for the co-construction of evolution scenarios and their use to support political decision-making. This structural uncertainty adds to the uncertainties more traditionally identified and propagated in models, such as estimation or observational uncertainty. These uncertainties are rarely presented to stakeholders; however, they should be an integral part of decision-making, and communicating the accuracy and robustness of diagnostics ensures the transparency and credibility of scientific advice. The dilemma stems from the fact that emphasizing uncertainty is an effective way to cast doubt on a statement and justify inaction; hiding it amounts to asserting certainties and allows for the imposition of a partisan position.

MIMI: A Science in Society Project

The MIMI (Models, Imaginaries, and Uncertainties) project, funded by the scientific department of Ifremer (AMI Sciences in Society), aims to contribute to resolving this dilemma. It aims to share representations, knowledge, and uncertainties about marine ecosystems between fisheries stakeholders and scientists. This exchange should help enrich scenarios for the evolution of marine socio-ecosystems derived from complex models and develop relevant communication materials for their dissemination. In this project, we will seek to answer the following questions: How can we integrate qualitative forms of knowledge and uncertainty derived from the perception and expertise of stakeholders into models? What role should uncertainty play in communicating scientific results to stakeholders in the fisheries sector and, more generally, to society? Should we forgo reporting the uncertainties inherent in our work to make it communicable and usable by stakeholders? How can we communicate uncertain results?

A novel methodology

Our methodology is based on two workshops with participants from the partnership group of the National Committee for Fisheries and Marine Livestock (CNPMEM) and IFREMER. The ISIS-Fish model will provide a concrete illustration and discussion of how to take uncertainty into account. Artists (authors, directors, performers, musicians, photographers) who are partners in the project used shared knowledge as the raw material for artistic productions intended for the general public.

The workshop products, aimed at scientists, fishing professionals, and society, included:

I) graphic tools for presenting models, uncertainty, and scenarios : open the presentation

II) a participatory workshop to simulate decision-making in an uncertain context : open the presentation

III) as well as an artistic production in the form of a presentation including theatrical performances, sound creations, and a photographic exhibition.